NGX Daily Market Summary – Friday, July 11, 2025

It was a bullish close for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) today as the All Share Index gained +1.37% to finish at 124,446.80, now standing +22.26% YTD. Market turnover increased +6.45% to ₦28.14B on lighter-than-usual 31,272 trade deals. Market breadth was strong at 2.28x (66 advancers vs 29 decliners), powered by financials and select consumer and insurance names. Notably, unusual trading volumes and bullish technicals in several small and midcaps signal heightened speculative activity, while sectorwise, banks and ETFs rotated in leadership.

Key Trends & Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Advancers strongly outpaced decliners (66 vs 29; breadth 2.28x), reflecting robust risk appetite and widespread participation.
• Volume Shift: Trading volume surged to 1.34B shares (+9.8% vs yesterday), with 74 stocks up on volume, and notable spikes in ACCESSCORP, ELLAHLAKES, JAPAULGOLD, and WEMABANK.
• Momentum: Bullish momentum evident with multiple stocks breaking above their 15DMA, as well as high RSI readings signaling near-term overbought conditions in several hot stocks. Bearish screens picked up only a few names, reflecting the dominant positive tone.

Top Gainers & Losers – Percentage Moves and Insights

• Most notable: NEWGOLD ETF spiked +11.2% (on 15DMA breakout) as investors rotated into safe haven assets, possibly reflecting tactical hedging.
• NEM Insurance, despite a sky-high RSI (85.6, overbought zone!), inexplicably plunged -10% — a classic "blow-off” pattern.
• GREENWETF notched the worst YTD loser and remains deeply oversold (RSI < 30), with further technical weakness— caution warranted.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers Table (as of Today)

• Hot Streak: Several YTD gainers (FTNCOCOA, ELLAHLAKES, REDSTAREX, MEYER, NGXGROUP) are now trading at extremely high RSI (>80), implying "overbought” — trailing momentum traders still in, but prudent investors may start rotating out/locking in profits.
• YTD Overlap Insight: GREENWETF occupies both today's top loser and YTD biggest decliner slot—deep fundamental and sentiment issues.

Momentum Tables: Bullish & Bearish Breakdowns

• Signal Intersection: AFRIPRUD delivers high dividend, low beta (defensive) but is flashing bearish as price slips below 15DMA—possible caution for yield investors seeking capital preservation.
• NEWGOLD, GUINNESS — both from non-bank sectors — look especially interesting for short-term tactical trades, especially as NEWGOLD brings a safe haven aspect amid surging ETF flows.

Contrarian Signals

• NEM Insurance: Despite a sky-high RSI of 85.6 (overbought), suffered a -10.0% plunge. This classic reversal after a momentum run suggests either profit taking or a buyer exhaustion zone—watch for volatility but avoid chasing.
• GREENWETF: Consistently weak, sits at RSI 21.8 (deep oversold) and -10.0% today and -66.3% YTD, but no reversal yet—avoid anticipating a bounce prematurely.
• CADBURY: Very high RSI (73.4); yet price strength is persistent; could go higher, but exit discipline is warranted.
• AFRIPRUD: Candid consideration for income seekers: while the yield is attractive and beta low, the recent breakdown below 15DMA flips it to short-term caution.

Sector Heatmaps & Technical Trends

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix ("Defensive Screen”)

Implication: Only CORNERST currently offers both a high dividend and a bullish technical pattern, while AFRIPRUD’s yield is attractive but comes with a price breakdown risk.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of all institutional trade value (₦3.6B); technicals remain bullish but monitor for "crowded trade” risk if flows reverse.
• ACCESSCORP: Largest trade volumes for both institutional and retail; the surge (volume up +233% vs 90D avg) on a +7.36% price jump signals momentum and possible fund re-indexing.

Stocks with High Dividend Yields in Bullish/Bearish Tables

• AFRIPRUD: Attractive 1.27% yield, low beta but latest momentum is negative (bearish breakdown), suggesting "hold but don’t chase”.
• CORNERST: High yield (5.28%), low beta, now turning bullish with price above 15DMA; ideal for cautious "yield + growth” plays.
• GUINNESS: Strong yield, new uptrend; upside remains, but pace may moderate if it grows overbought.

Suggestions and Trading Opportunities

• Momentum names (FTNCOCOA, ELLAHLAKES, REDSTAREX, MEYER, NGXGROUP): Still strong but danger of "overheated” momentum (RSI > 80); consider trailing stops or phased profit taking.
• Unusual volume: ACCESSCORP and ELLAHLAKES (over 700% of 90-day avg for ELLAHLAKES) could signal institutional accumulation or speculative froth—pro traders may watch for follow-through or exploit "blow-off” reversals.
• Yields play: Focus on CORNERST (bullish, high yield, below average risk), monitor AFRIPRUD for any reversal to the upside.
• ETF flows: The NEWGOLD ETF rally may reflect portfolio diversification or near-term hedging—potential for further strength if risk-off sentiment deepens.
• Sector rotation: Banking and Financials remain leadership pockets; Insurance and Consumer Goods sectors are strong but potentially stretched on the upside.
• Risk: For stocks with red flags (extreme RSI, big daily drops from highs), stay nimble and be ready to cut positions quickly.

Market Activity Summary: Retail vs. Institutional

• Institutional investors dominated by value (88.9%), and volume (68.7%) despite smaller trade count — showing big block trades, especially in ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO, and DANGCEM.
• Retail activity accounted for the majority of trade counts but far less value, indicating broad participation but little price setting power.
• Overlap Alert: GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK are consistently top for both channels, confirming their status as institutional liquidity/compliance darlings, and often early signals for broader sector moves.
• JAPAULGOLD: Strong retail trading (also on unusual volume), sector risk sentiment up.

• Pattern: Institutional and retail flows are heavily concentrated in large banks and diversified financials, with ACCESSCORP as a key liquidity anchor for both.
• Strategy: Liquidity-following traders may continue to focus on both sectoral ETF and leading bank tickers given steady institutional flows and technical confirmation.

Summary Outlook & Actionable Insights

• Momentum is king but numerous high-flyers are technically overbought—short-term traders should trail stops, while medium-term investors can consider paring back.
• Institutional clustering in ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK and ETF flows surging signal confidence in financials and select safe havens.
• Divergence warning: Defensive high-yielders (like AFRIPRUD) showing technical softness –a yellow flag for pure yield chasers.
• Unusual volume alerts in speculative/momentum names (ELLAHLAKES, JAPAULGOLD): possible bullish continuation but higher risk of reversals; trade with tight risk controls.
• Insurance and Consumer Goods stocks should be watched for signs of exhaustion or reversal due to stretched technicals.
• Currency: The Naira appreciated modestly (+0.03%) to 1,533/$, providing further stability for equity flows.

Stay nimble, rotate as momentum shifts, monitor institutional flows, and use sector rotation/ETF trends to inform portfolio strategy. Watch out for further signals from top-traded bank stocks and defensive names as the week closes out on a strong note.